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Computational modeling has become indispensable in investigating the dynamics of decision making processes. A prominent category of models in this domain are Evidence Accumulation Models (EAMs), which model both the decisions people make and the time they take. Many variations have been proposed which modify the drift rate, diffusion rate, and decision thresholds, encoding increasingly complex dynamics into the EAM framework. However, adding model features complicates parameter recovery, making model interpretation more difficult. In this work, we perform a parameter recovery study to a variety of common binary choice EAMs, identify the specific challenges for each, and explore how to improve their parameter recoverability. Though previous studies have addressed this question, they have been piecemeal in nature, with different groups applying different computational methods to study different models. We aim to unify this body of literature using the best currently available computational methods. Further, we present the first, to our knowledge, Bayesian analysis of diffusion conflict models. Our purpose here is to be thorough, not exhaustive or comprehensive. With this in mind, this article catalogues a number of results, some previously shown and some new. Further, it illustrates different approaches to model analysis. This article is intended to be a resource for researchers interested in utilizing EAMs for studying decision-making processes, providing insights into the challenges associated these models, how to analyze them in light of those challenges, and examples of how to address those challenges. 

The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D protein folding or climate forecasting). In this paper, we reexamine the parsimony principle in light of these scientific and technological advancements. We review recent developments, including the surprising benefits of modeling with more parameters than data, the increasing appreciation of the context-sensitivity of data and misspecification of scientific models, and the development of new modeling tools. By integrating these insights, we reassess the utility of parsimony as a proxy for desirable model traits, such as predictive accuracy, interpretability, effectiveness in guiding new research, and resource efficiency. We conclude that more complex models are sometimes essential for scientific progress, and discuss the ways in which parsimony and complexity can play complementary roles in scientific modeling practice. 

Abstract In early March 2020, two crises emerged: the COVID-19 public health crisis and a corresponding economic crisis resulting from business closures and skyrocketing job losses. While the link between socioeconomic status and infectious disease is well-documented, the psychological relationships among economic considerations, such as financial constraint and economic anxiety, and health considerations, such as perceptions of disease spread and preventative actions, is not well understood. Despite past research illustrating the strong link between financial fragility and a wide range of behaviors, surprisingly little research has examined the psychological relationship between the economic crisis and beliefs and behaviors related to the co-occurring health crisis. We show that financial constraint predicts people’s beliefs about both their personal risk of infection and the national spread of the virus as well as their social distancing behavior. In addition, we compare the predictive utility of financial constraint to two other commonly studied factors: political partisanship and local disease severity. We also show that negative affect partially mediates the relationship between financial constraint and COVID-19 beliefs and social distancing behaviors. These results suggest the economic crisis created by COVID-19 spilled over into people’s beliefs about the health crisis and their behaviors. 

This is the third edition of the NSF Science Plan for the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI). It was developed to focus natural hazards research on some of the major challenges communities face as they work to enhance their resilience to natural hazard events. It provides information for researchers, funding agencies, practitioners, students, and the public on the critical research needs and the process of conducting multi-hazard research to advance hazards engineering practice and community resilience. The Science Plan provides Grand Challenges and Key Research Questions. 

During early mammalian embryo development, a small number of cells make robust fate decisions at particular spatial locations in a tight time window to form inner cell mass (ICM), and later epiblast (Epi) and primitive endoderm (PE). While recent single-cell transcriptomics data allows scrutinization of heterogeneity of individual cells, consistent spatial and temporal mechanisms the early embryo utilize to robustly form the Epi/PE layers from ICM remain elusive. Here we build a multiscale three-dimensional model for mammalian embryo to recapitulate the observed patterning process from zygote to late blastocyst. By integrating the spatiotemporal information reconstructed from multiple single-cell transcriptomic datasets, the data-informed modeling analysis suggests two major processes critical to the formation of Epi/PE layers: a selective cell-cell adhesion mechanism (via EphA4/EphrinB2) for fate-location coordination and a temporal attenuation mechanism of cell signaling (via Fgf). Spatial imaging data and distinct subsets of single-cell gene expression data are then used to validate the predictions. Together, our study provides a multiscale framework that incorporates single-cell gene expression datasets to analyze gene regulations, cell-cell communications, and physical interactions among cells in complex geometries at single-cell resolution, with direct application to late-stage development of embryogenesis. 

This is the second edition of the five-year Science Plan for the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI). It provides information for constituents, including practitioners, as well as guidance for members of the research community.This report is an overview of the research needed to support the Grand Challenges described by the report. It covers both the scope and the process of conducting multi-hazard research for improving civil infrastructure.